🔗 Share this article

Only 48 hours prior to the NYC mayoral election, Michael Lange issued a bold forecast – going beyond who would win overall, and block by block. The analyst, an expert in elections born and raised in the city, devoted more than ten years in progressive politics and emerged as something of a local celebrity recently for his deep dives into municipal statistics and polling.

He published his extremely precise prediction map – which correctly forecast that Zohran Mamdani was victorious while failed to predict Andrew Cuomo’s solid showing – on his Substack, the Narrative War. He has a flair for witty coinages. He highlighted, as an example, the divide between the “commie corridor”, running from Park Slope to another area to a third locale, where he predicted (accurately) that Mamdani would win by huge margins, and the “capitalist corridor” on affluent parts of Manhattan. There, “the Free Press and financial newspapers surpass the New York Times” in readership and the majority of electors leaned toward Cuomo, campaigning as a moderate alternative.

Voting Day Patterns and Surprises

How was your election night?

It was necessary because they were dropping approximately 200K ballots into the system frequently! I felt somewhat anxious at the beginning: The candidate was ahead the initial ballots by 12 points, but came large groups of ballots that came in after that and his lead went from 12 to 8%. I was worried.

Understand, it was possible where election day turned out somewhat badly for Mamdani, where the opponent was going to end up essentially doubling his votes from the Democratic primary. However Mamdani added 500,000 supporters to his initial base, and this was critical why he succeeded. He campaigned and massively expanded his support from the first round.

Coalition Building

Where did the mayor-elect gain additional support from?

He assembled the coalition that progressives long aimed for: it’s multiracial, youthful, tenants and individuals squeezed by affordability. He gained considerably with minority communities, everyday New Yorkers, relative to the earlier election. Plus he further maximized his core of left-leaning activists, youthful radicals, and Muslims and south Asians. He couldn’t have won without expanding his appeal.

He built the coalition that progressives long aimed for: diverse, youthful, tenants and people struggling with costs

There were also some supporters of both candidates – is that a big trend?

It is a real thing, confined to working-class Latinos, south Asians and Muslims. Voters in immigrant strongholds that supported the former president last year went for Zohran this year. But it’s not that he was winning over Caucasian laborers and Trump loyalists.

Turnout and Impact

One of the big stories of the night was the record participation. Who did that help?

Each candidate. Turnout was much greater than I had expected. I thought it could exceed two million, but it’s closer to 2.3M – which is a lot of darn voters. Existed a substantial anti-Mamdani block, who were motivated, but the Mamdani base was also motivated, and that was enough to win.

You predicted he’d get over 50% of the vote. Is he likely for that?

Right now you would say he’s likely to surpass half. He has just over 50% but there’s still probably 200,000 votes left to report at that time. So it’s not certain, but I believe probable, and I hope he achieves it so afterwards no one can say Sliwa was a spoiler.

GOP Decline

Curtis Sliwa, the conservative contender, was another surprise. His support plummeted.

He lost a single precinct in any borough. Not even Tottenville in the borough, which is like an 88% Trump neighborhood. That really surprised me. The independent kept Caucasian districts, very wealthy areas and devout communities, and then added all of these Republicans on Staten Island who had a strong turnout. I believe there was a lot of tactical voting by GOP voters. They were doing it prior to the former president tweeted his support for Cuomo, but it assisted. It might have changed the outcome unless Mamdani’s coalition hadn’t grown.

Progressive Strongholds

Regarding your much mentioned left-wing base – was support for the candidate overwhelming in those areas of Brooklyn and Queens?

I think there was some weakening of the commie corridor in certain places like neighborhoods that have older Caucasian residents. There, for example, the Greek landlords and homeowners supported Cuomo. So there was some opposition. However no, mostly the leftist base is a key factor why Mamdani prevailed – he was polling between 77% and 83% in specific neighborhoods.

Community Support

In the lead-up to the election there was coverage on whether Mamdani was gaining ground with the community. Any indication that he did?

Exist neighborhoods with a lot of secular and more progressive-leaning Jews – like specific locales – where he did well. However in the wealthy Jewish communities such as the Upper East Side, his Middle East stance was influential there. Similarly in the more middle-class Jewish areas like Queens neighborhoods, or Spuyten Duyvil and Riverdale – they all leaned the independent. Plus, there are Jewish immigrants from the former Soviet Union in the borough, who were pretty staunchly supportive. So I don’t know if there were crazy narrative-busters here, but he retained left-leaning areas and including sections of the Upper West Side with large leads.

Long-Term Significance

Did Mamdani redefine what New York represents in politics? Will progressive base serve as a springboard for progressive contenders?

Absolutely, it’s not accidental that key figures from progressives come from a handful of neighborhoods in Brooklyn, Queens and the Bronx. I’m sure that there will be more of that – people will emerge from these areas to be elevated nationally.

But I believe that every city in the US can have their own commie corridor. Urban places are the centers of leftwing power in America – because youth reside there, people rent and they are places where people are crushed by the disparities we face.